Ten trends of foreign trade development in 2022
The scale of my country's foreign trade import and export reached a record high, exceeding 6 trillion US dollars; my country's imports and exports with countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 23.6%, 2.2 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate; my country's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports increased by 15%, and the market Purchasing exports increased by 32.1%, and new models and new formats have injected new vitality into the development of foreign trade... In 2021, my country commemorated the 20th anniversary of its accession to the WTO with excellent results, injecting new impetus into the recovery of global trade.
1. Global trade is slowly recovering, and the Asia-Pacific region will become the most active region in international trade
"Recovery" has become one of the key words for most respondents' outlook on the global trade situation, but it is only necessary to choose between a strong recovery, a slow recovery and a K-shaped recovery. The survey shows that 72% of the respondents believe that the global trade development is likely to show a slow recovery trend in 2022. In addition, 84% of the respondents believe that with the entry into force of RCEP, the global trade center will continue to move eastward in 2022, and the Asia-Pacific region will become the most active region for international trade.
Liang Guoyong, a senior economic affairs officer at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, said that according to estimates by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the total global trade in goods and services in 2021 is expected to increase by 23% compared with the previous year, reaching 28 trillion US dollars. He analyzed that after a strong recovery in 2021, global trade may show a relatively weak recovery trend.
On the one hand, the epidemic is still raging around the world, which still has a strong repressive effect on trade in services; on the other hand, facing the severe threat of high inflation, major economies are bound to withdraw from quantitative easing and start a cycle of interest rate hikes, and monetary policy turns sharply It will inevitably have a negative impact on the demand for trade in goods and increase global economic risks. The Asia-Pacific economy has shown strong resilience under the impact of the epidemic, and intra-regional trade relations have strengthened. Due to the effective response to the epidemic, the Asia-Pacific region has stable production, strong exports and rapid economic recovery, which has provided support for the regional and world economic recovery from the supply side.
2. China's foreign trade growth in 2022 is full of confidence
48% of the respondents believe that compared with 2021, my country's foreign trade will still grow in 2022 but the growth rate may slow down, and 28% of the respondents believe that my country's foreign trade will continue the strong growth trend last year. So where does the strength of my country's foreign trade growth come from? The survey shows that 90% of the respondents believe that my country's foreign trade with countries along the "Belt and Road" will continue to grow, which is an important driving force for my country's foreign trade growth. Respondents believe that the rapid development of new business formats and new models, the gradual implementation of foreign trade policies, the improved utilization of free trade agreements, and the continuous optimization of product mix will be important factors driving the growth of foreign trade exports, promoting common prosperity, lowering tariffs, and increasing domestic demand. The release and acceleration of the construction of ports in the free trade zone will help to further expand imports.
Liang Haiming, dean of the Belt and Road Research Institute of Hainan University, believes that my country's foreign trade will continue to be the driving force behind China's strong economic growth. In particular, the official entry into force of RCEP will help China to change its role from the low end of the global trade value chain to the high end of the regional trade value chain, and it is also expected to strengthen the Asia-Pacific economic and trade cooperation. In addition, China will maintain its leading position in economic development and epidemic prevention and control this year. China will also actively promote trade agreements with countries along the “Belt and Road” this year, and develop new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce, market procurement, and overseas warehouses. , and with the help of the comprehensive bonded zone, free trade zone, Hainan Free Trade Port and other frontier foreign trade platforms, it will support and promote China's foreign trade this year.
3. In 2022, my country's policy of supporting foreign trade enterprises will continue to strengthen
On December 30 last year, at the regular policy briefing held by the State Council Information Office, Li Xingqian, director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said that it is necessary to speed up the promotion of trade adjustment assistance. The recently released "Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Doing a Good Job in Cross-Cycle Adjustment to Further Stabilize Foreign Trade" requires all localities to establish and improve a trade adjustment assistance system in light of their local conditions. For this reason, 92% of the respondents believe that in 2022, my country's policies to support foreign trade enterprises will continue to strengthen.
Jie Hao, an associate researcher at the Institute of International Commerce and Trade of the Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences, said that the Trade Adjustment Assistance system originated in the United States. It initially provided financial and technical support for companies hit by imports. and industries included in the aid target. He believes that under the impact of the epidemic, foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises, have encountered greater difficulties. In addition to the unified financial and monetary policy support of the state, the international practice of trade adjustment assistance is used to help them in technological upgrading, Necessary support in personnel training, market development, financing, etc., and timely adaptation to changes in the external environment through adjustments will help protect market players and protect and stimulate their vitality.
4. The utilization rate of my country's foreign trade enterprises' FTA will gradually increase
The entry into force of RCEP has become one of the hotspots in the field of foreign trade in 2022, which will help improve the awareness level of my country's foreign trade enterprises on the free trade agreement, thereby improving the utilization rate of the free trade agreement among enterprises. In this survey, 86% of the respondents believe that the utilization rate of FTAs for foreign trade enterprises in my country will gradually increase. In addition, 10% of the respondents believe that the utilization rate of FTAs for foreign trade enterprises in my country will increase rapidly. This shows that people from all walks of life have high hopes for the effects brought about by RCEP after it takes effect.
Relevant studies have shown that the following factors will affect the utilization rate of FTAs: first, the level of tariff preferences and market openness provided by the FTA; second, the rules of origin in the FTA; Referrals and services. RCEP not only effectively solves the "Italian bowl effect" of intra-regional free trade agreements, but also adopts cumulative rules for the rules of origin, and its degree of openness is also the best among many free trade agreements.
In addition, empirical studies have shown that the more FTAs a country signs, the higher the utilization rate of its FTAs. Therefore, it is of great significance to guide enterprises to make full use of the preferential terms of RCEP and use this as an opportunity to improve the utilization rate of Chinese enterprises in other free trade agreements, which is of great significance for promoting the high-quality development of my country's foreign trade. For enterprises, whether to use the FTA is mainly based on the calculation of costs and benefits, that is, the comparison between the cost and the possible benefits that they have invested in applying for the preferential tariff of the FTA.
Yao Weiqun, member of the Expert Committee of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and executive director of the Shanghai International Trade Center Strategic Research Institute, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, believes that the application of the rules of origin, technical barriers to trade, animal and plant quarantine rules and intellectual property protection rules of free trade agreements such as RCEP by enterprises It is a difficult problem to improve the utilization rate of free trade agreements. He suggested that the competent commercial departments at all levels and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade should establish an FTA business consulting network for enterprises to help enterprises solve these problems.
5. Problems such as the difficulty in finding a box of my country's foreign trade may be eased this year
Facing the problem of "one box is hard to find" for foreign trade enterprises, local commerce departments and trade promotion agencies help enterprises to connect with the resources of shipping companies or freight forwarding companies, realize direct procurement of transportation capacity, and order cargo boxes in advance. 74% of respondents believe the hard-to-find problem will be alleviated in 2022.
Che Tanlai, deputy director and researcher of the International Train Consulting Service Center of the China Association of Transportation, believes that with the increase of experience in epidemic prevention and control in various countries, the adaptability and resilience of the global supply chain to the epidemic will also continue to increase, and the disordered and The chain breakage will be reduced, the timeliness of land and sea transportation will be improved, and the market price of land and sea space may drop slightly.
6. Land transportation methods such as China-Europe freight trains are increasingly important to the development of foreign trade
During the epidemic, the operation of the China Railway Express has played an important role in stabilizing the global supply chain and supporting countries along the route to fight the epidemic. In this context, 80% of the respondents believe that land transportation such as China-Europe trains will play an increasingly important role in the development of my country's foreign trade.
Che Tanlai said that for land transportation methods such as the China-Europe freight train, with the gradual smoothness of the industrial chain and supply chain of the countries along the “Belt and Road”, the market demand will increase, especially the volume of goods from Europe to China will increase with The gradual recognition of China-Europe freight trains by European freight forwarders and cargo owners has increased. From the perspective of car explorers, the biggest challenges facing China-Europe trains in 2022 are mainly: first, how to improve service quality, how to restore the transit time from China to Western Europe to about 15 days before the epidemic; second, how to reduce transportation costs , to deal with new competition after shipping price cuts.
7. In 2022, problems such as rising raw material prices faced by my country's foreign trade may be alleviated
In the past 2021, on the one hand, foreign trade companies have to pay high prices in order to obtain a transportation position, and on the other hand, they are under the constant pressure of rising raw material prices on their operations. When will these days end? 56% of the respondents believe that the problems faced by my country's foreign trade, such as rising prices of raw materials, may ease in 2022, 12% of the respondents believe that the status quo may be maintained, and 18% of the respondents believe that this The problem may be more serious.
In this regard, Hu Qimu, chief researcher of Sinosteel Economic Research Institute, is on the side of most respondents. He believes that the issue of commodity price trends in 2022 can be viewed from three aspects: First, the Fed's shrinking balance sheet has made commodity prices The monetary and financial factors in China have weakened; second, the domestic policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is actually made from both supply and demand, and the effect of alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand and restraining the continuous rise of prices has continued to show; third, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed The "triple pressures" are all bearish for commodity markets. Therefore, he believes that although commodity prices are still at historically high levels, it is expected that the center of price volatility will continue to move downward in 2022.
8. Foreign trade enterprises will intensify the transformation of domestic and foreign trade integration
Promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade is an important part of building a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other. This is further confirmed in this survey. 90% of the respondents believe that foreign trade enterprises will increase their efforts to integrate domestic and foreign trade. Recently, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Development of Domestic and Foreign Trade", making arrangements for promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade, forming a strong domestic market, and smoothing the domestic and international dual circulation. Specifically, 15 work measures were proposed from four aspects.
The "Opinions" propose that by 2025, the connection between domestic and foreign trade laws and regulations, regulatory systems, business qualifications, quality standards, inspection and quarantine, certification and accreditation will be more effective, the integrated development level of domestic and foreign trade of market players will be further improved, and the internal and external communication networks will be more complete. Government management services have been continuously optimized, and the integrated control system for domestic and foreign trade has become more complete, enabling efficient operation and integrated development of domestic and foreign trade.
In the view of the interviewees, the integration of domestic and foreign trade is not an expedient measure to deal with changes in the international environment, but an important strategic measure. For my country's economy, it is a specific measure for my country to further open up the domestic market and integrate into the world market. For enterprises, when my country has become a "world market", incorporating the domestic market into their plans is the reason for them to become competitive The only way for international enterprises and global enterprises.
9. The foreign trade business of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially specialized and new enterprises, will gradually increase
The Beijing Stock Exchange was established, the "Several Measures to Enhance the Competitiveness of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises" were issued, and the "Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Further Strengthening the Relief and Assistance for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises"... Recently, various support policies have been issued all over the country. Small and medium-sized enterprises usher in an excellent period of development opportunities. The same is true in the field of foreign trade. The "14th Five-Year Plan for High-Quality Development of Foreign Trade" proposes to promote the transformation and upgrading of small and medium-sized enterprises and take the road of "specialization, specialization and innovation" internationalization. The survey shows that 92% of the respondents are optimistic that SMEs will make new progress in the field of foreign trade or internationalization.
In the opinion of the respondents, increasing the development of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises, especially supporting the internationalization of specialized, specialized and new enterprises, can increase the number of foreign trade entities, effectively drive small and medium-sized enterprises to participate in the global division of labor, and enhance the innovative development capabilities of foreign trade. To this end, the interviewees suggested the following two ways to start: one is to build foreign trade bases, parks and other means to increase the agglomeration of small and medium-sized enterprises and build a cluster of foreign trade enterprises; Small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises should transform and upgrade to enhance the international competitiveness of their products and services.
10. All parties hope that Sino-US economic and trade relations will be improved
In this survey, some respondents have relatively large differences of opinion, so they did not appear in these trends, such as whether new concepts such as the Metaverse will drive the development of foreign trade in related industries and so on. However, since Sino-US economic and trade relations are the focus of the world's attention, its trend will have a profound impact on the world economic and trade pattern.
Therefore, we present the survey results here: 40% of the respondents believe that China-US economic and trade relations will maintain the status quo, 34% of the respondents believe that it is uncertain, and 20% of the respondents believe that it will gradually improve. Another 6% of respondents believe that it may gradually deteriorate. At the same time, all respondents said that 2022 is the 50th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China, and it is hoped that at this moment of special significance, Sino-US economic and trade relations can be improved.
