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05-11-2019

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This is the profit and loss statement of COSCO Shipping Development Co., Ltd., which not only leases container ships, but also makes and leases shipping containers. Income has fallen sharply. But Cosco Shipping Development Co., Ltd. (COSCO Shipping Development) can protect its profits by cutting costs. Profits soared. 

Cosco Shipping Development (HKEx: 2866; for the nine months ended September 30, 2019, the consolidated income statement of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE: 601866) fell by a staggering 22 per cent. The figure was 10.18 billion yuan ($1.42 billion), down 2.93 billion yuan ($410.23 million) from a year earlier. 

However, net profit surged 60 per cent in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period last year. In the nine months from January to September, net profit was 1.29 billion yuan ($180.6 million), an absolute difference of 485.56 million yuan ($67.92 million) from the first three quarters of 2018. 

COSCO Shipping Development Co., Ltd. is also known as "COSCO Haifa" or "Zhongyuan Haifa", especially in Putonghua. As its name implies, COSCO Shipping Development is part of the famous COSCO Shipping Group. 

Both groups of revenue streams, "revenue from operations" and "fees and commissions", fell in the third quarter, from July to September 2019. Revenue fell 31.59% from a year earlier to 3.34 billion yuan ($467.55 million), while fees and commissions fell 40.98% to 9.33 billion yuan ($1.39 million). 

The "investment income" item on the income statement, including investment income in associates and joint ventures, also does not look good. Cosco Shipping Development Co., Ltd. reported a 49.44% drop in investment income, which was 286.6 million yuan ($40.9 million) at the end of the fourth quarter, the final result of an absolute drop in investment income of $39.2 million. 

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In the third quarter of 2019, "cost of sales" fell 32.35% from a year earlier to 3.27 billion yuan ($457.56 million). There are many developments in many of the "cost of sales" subprojects in the income statement. The key is "operating costs", which fell 38.18 per cent in the three months to September 2019 compared with the same period a year earlier.During the reporting period, the Group's operating costs were 2.38 billion yuan (US $339.8 million), an absolute reduction of 1.47 billion yuan (US $205.62 million). The group also saved about 167.43 million yuan ($23.42 million) in financial costs this quarter compared with the same period last year. 

Airlines on Asia-Europe routes have low expectations for this year's peak season, with two alliances planning to cancel more than 130,000 TEU flights in July and August. 

According to Alphaliner, the Ocean Alliance will cancel four voyages during this period and 66900 TEU voyages within four weeks. Just a few days ago, the alliance announced that it would remove four sailboats from 67000 TEU in July. 

It is a clear sign that airlines are pessimistic about this year's peak season in Asia and Europe at a time of slowing growth in Europe's major economies and falling factory output in China. 

Felix Heger, head of global maritime and Chinese rail freight at DHL, said the signs of demand in the coming months were not very positive. 

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"more and more blank routes have been announced, which is a signal that airlines follow the same line of thought," Hagrid said."more empty ships mean a negative impact on transport reliability in the short term, and we may indeed see that happen to some airlines in the second half of the year." 

Supporting this view of weaker demand is the IHS Markit/ Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing managers Index ((PMI),), which fell in June to the second lowest level since June 2016, indicating a marked contraction in the manufacturing sector. 

It is estimated that 41.7 million 20-foot equivalent (TEU) containers were in circulation at the end of last year, of which container leasing companies had a 53 per cent share. Of the boxes owned by the lessor, Triton estimates that it owns 28 per cent, Florens 17 per cent, Textainer 16 per cent, Seaco 11 per cent, CAI 7 per cent and other lessors 21 per cent. 

Given their market footprint, US-listed equipment renters know that when large orders for new containers exceed the need for liner companies to replace old containers (estimated to account for 5 per cent of the world's ships each year). They know when liners need additional second-hand units to meet increased demand, when airlines need to empty some of their equipment inventories as demand falls, and when the market environment worsens. Container manufacturers, all Chinese, have shut down some of their factory capacity.

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